IT organizations are faced with Year 2000 date compliance at a time when there are manifold changes taking place both in technology and industry. While economic and competitive pressures are forcing critical business changes and IT modernization, Year 2000 compliance is taking center-stage with many business executives considering it a survival issue. Our research shows that over 75% of modernization efforts will be delayed or displaced by Year 2000 initiatives. Software productivity has already dropped, in part due to IT organizations' embarking on Year 2000 efforts. We predict further drops in productivity as increasing demand for programming resources drive up turnover, ultimately dumbing-down programmers as they are rewarded more for programming skills rather than productivity enhancing business domain and system skills. Moreover, many IT organizations' basic "state-of-software-practice" will limit their success in addressing Year 2000 date changes. While proven impact analysis, software estimation, change management, and testing technology exist to improve the situation, less than 20% will have the time to absorb and exploit these technologies for Year 2000 compliance. This presentation examines the Year 2000 situation from an industry perspective, draws on our recent Year 2000 Surveys, examines critical issues (concerning dumbing-down of software profession, modernization delays, software practice impacts, and alignments with LOBs and executive management), and relates top ten system risks.

Background

Bio:Shawn A. Bohner is program director for META Group's Software Engineering Productivity Strategies service. Dr. Bohner is a recognized authority on software impact analysis, maintenance, modernization, and reengineering. Prior to joining META Group, he was lead scientist with the Mitretek Systems' Software Systems Modernization Center (formerly MITRE Corporation) where he developed and led their Year 2000 compliance capability serving public sector clients. Dr. Bohner was also responsible for leading software modernization, process improvement, and business process reengineering efforts. Dr. has also held responsible positions at GTE Laboratories, the Software Productivity Consortium, and Ford. He holds BS and MS degrees in Computer Science from University of Maryland and Johns Hopkins University, and a Ph.D. from George Mason University. He is a Vice Chair for the IEEE Technical Council on Software Engineering and is past-Chair of the ACM Professional Development Committee in Washington, DC. Dr. Bohner has over 20 refereed technical publications including a book (Co-authored with Dr. Robert Arnold) entitled, "Software Change Impact Analysis" which was recognized by Peter de Jager's Year 2000 Hookup group as a Year 2000 resource.

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